China's CO2 emissions have been 'flat or falling' for 21 months, with a 1% decline in the final quarter of 2025, likely securing a 0.3% decline for the full year. This trend began in March 2024 and has lasted nearly two years. In 2025, fossil fuel emissions increased by 0.1%, but a 7% decline in CO2 from cement offset this. CO2 emissions fell in most major sectors in 2025, except the chemicals industry, which grew by 12%. Solar power output increased by 43%, wind by 14%, and nuclear by 8%, helping reduce coal generation by 1.9%. Energy storage capacity grew by 75 GW, surpassing peak demand growth. This means clean-power output and storage capacity growth outpaced electricity demand increases. China's carbon intensity fell by 4.7% in 2025 and 12% during 2020-25, falling short of the 18% target set for the 14th five-year plan. To meet Paris Agreement commitments, China needs to cut carbon intensity by 23% over the next five years. The 15th five-year plan will determine if emissions have peaked or will rise again, with a focus on the chemicals industry, which saw a 12% increase in emissions. Clean energy growth is crucial to meeting climate commitments, but China's central government targets are lower than required. The 2026-30 five-year plan will set a carbon intensity target aligned with the 2030 Paris commitment, with a focus on non-fossil energy and distributed solar development.
