Get ready to mark your calendars, because 2026 is shaping up to be a monumental year at the box office! Four blockbuster films are poised to shatter the $1 billion mark, and we’re here to break down which ones have the best shot at achieving this cinematic milestone. But here’s where it gets controversial: not all of these films are guaranteed hits, and some might surprise you with their potential—or lack thereof. Let’s dive in and rank these contenders, exploring what makes them billion-dollar material—or not.
2025 set the stage with four films crossing the billion-dollar threshold, including Ne Zha 2, which dominated overseas, and domestic favorites like Lilo & Stitch, Zootopia 2, and Avatar: Fire and Ash. While 2026 looks to follow suit with four strong contenders, there’s always room for a dark horse to emerge. Take Oppenheimer, which nearly hit $1 billion—who’s to say Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey won’t follow in its footsteps? Still, when it comes to films with a substantial likelihood of breaking the bank, these four stand out. Let’s rank them by their chances, starting with the least certain.
4) *The Mandalorian & Grogu*
Disney is betting big on this theatrical Star Wars adventure, but is the force still strong with this franchise? Eight years after the underwhelming Solo: A Star Wars Story, Disney is playing it safe by leaning on the built-in fanbase of The Mandalorian. However, the series peaked in popularity during its first two seasons (2019–2020), and its final season, after a three-year hiatus, didn’t land as well. Will The Mandalorian & Grogu reverse this trend? The trailer certainly builds hype, but it feels more like a fun ride than a must-see event. And this is the part most people miss: while the Star Wars brand is powerful, audience fatigue could be a real factor. Still, a 60% chance of crossing $1 billion seems fair—for now.
3) *Toy Story 5*
The Toy Story franchise has been a box office juggernaut, but is the magic fading? Adjusting for inflation, the series’ earnings reveal a trend: Toy Story 3 peaked at $1.576 billion, while Toy Story 4 dipped to $1.352 billion. The question lingers: did the third film wrap things up perfectly, making subsequent installments feel unnecessary? Toy Story 5 faces an uphill battle, but it’s unlikely to fall below $1 billion. Still, don’t expect a Zootopia 2-level phenomenon. Here’s the controversial take: Is Pixar stretching the franchise too thin? Let us know in the comments. Chance of crossing $1 billion: 75%.
2) *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*
The MCU isn’t the financial powerhouse it once was, but Tom Holland’s Spider-Man remains a fan favorite. Spider-Man: Brand New Day is a smaller-scale reset after the massive success of No Way Home, but it’s still expected to perform well. Think closer to Far From Home’s $1.133 billion than No Way Home’s $1.921 billion. But here’s where it gets controversial: Can a scaled-down Spider-Man film still captivate audiences in a post-No Way Home world? We think so, with an 85% chance of hitting $1 billion.
1) *Avengers: Doomsday*
Love it or hate it, the MCU’s Avengers: Doomsday is a lock to cross $1 billion. With Robert Downey Jr. returning in a new role, this film is a must-see event. But here’s the catch: its reported $600 million budget means even $1 billion might not be a clear win. All eyes are on Doomsday not just as the winter’s biggest film, but as a litmus test for the MCU’s future. Controversial question: Is this the last hurrah for the Avengers, or a new beginning? Share your thoughts below. Chance of crossing $1 billion: 100%.
So, there you have it—four films with the potential to dominate 2026’s box office. Which one are you most excited for? And which do you think will fall short? Let the debate begin!
